Dear users, In the last week, there was a rather sharp rise in sunspot and flare activity. The first large sunspot group appeared on the visible disk in the southern hemisphere, the area of ​​which increased to 770 msh by June 30. As the rate of emergence of new magnetic fluxes (flux) was relatively low, all the energy of these fluxes went to the growth of the number of spots and their area. This is a good example of the evolutionary development of a flare-quiet active region. Another example was presented to us by a sunspot group formed at 2.07 near the western limb, where the ascent rate of a suffi- ciently large new magnetic flux was large, which led already 3-4. 09 to the period of realization (23 h) the flare of large and mid- dle class (X, M). Thus, the current 25th cycle of solar activity began active ac- tivity 18 months after passing the minimum point, as well as SC 23 (average value). The past SC 24 took 26 months to do this. According to the rule of Gnevyshev-Ol, the current SC should be of an average size, which he aimed at. ------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JUNE 2021 HAS MADE Wjune = 15 25.3(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 12 MONTH (2020, DECEMBER) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*dec. = 9 15.3 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*nov. = 8.2 13.6 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for JUNE 2021 (69 observatories): 1.. 22 6.. 38 11.. 19 16.. 12 21.. 13 26.. 19 2.. 30 7.. 50 12.. 8m 17.. 12 22.. 16 27.. 34 3.. 31 8.. 36 13.. 15 18.. 22 23.. 11 28.. 46 4.. 35 9.. 26 14.. 12 19.. 15 24.. 11 29.. 57í 5.. 39 10.. 27 15.. 11 20.. 15 25.. 23 30.. 56 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON JUNE 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2020, DECEMBER F10.7june = 79.8 F*10.7dec.= 76.4 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JUNE 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, DECEMBER 2020 Ap june= 5.5 Ap*dec. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 28.06 - 04.07.2021, Forecast on 05 - 12.07.2021, Carrington Rotations 2245, 2246 (07,69.06; 04,88.07.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (+0.2 - 0.7) deg. (S32 - N32 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REACHED ON MIDDLE LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=37+12/-7 (Wn=61 +20/-11). THERE WERE ONE BIG AND 4 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK HAS BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON MIDDLE AND LOW LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI- ONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=040+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT HIGH, MIDLE (3.09), LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ONE SOLAR FLARE OF X-RAY "X" CLASS, 3 -"M", 11 -"ó", 57- "B", SIX EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND 24 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (28-29.06, 1-4.07) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 03.07 0704 0719 0729 N23W78L100 M2.7/SF 1.2E+2 12838 CME/0800 03.07 1418 1429 1447 N23W82L100 X1.5/SN 4.6E-2 12838 II/1 CME/1812 03.07 1659 1714 1703 N22W83L100 SF/M1.0 6.3E-3 12838 04.07 0501 0509 0515 N22W88L100 M1.5/BSL 6.6E-03 12838 DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 24.06 >0039 >1249 N42W15L120 12 24.06 0749 0804 N29W47L088 17 B.5A 25.06 >0137 >1247 N44W41L083 8 26.06 0857 1027 N41W26L084 10 27.06 <0127 NW ? CME/0127 02.07 1401 NW ? CME/1536 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óH* + N60L078 N25L080 N22L068 N35L065 <2% 30.06 1 SDO,SOHO... óH* + N40L024 N30L029 N20L016 N30L014 0.9% 07.07 1 SDO,SOHO * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 2.07/1418 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 09.07. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- JUNE 28 29 30 01 02 03 04 JULY Wus 050 056 054 056 072 081 060 F10.7 089 093 094 094 095 094 091 èbcg ÷1.8 ÷1.5 ÷1.7 ÷1.5 ÷1.5 ÷3.0 ÷2.4 GOES Sp 280 410 540 810 600 680 590 msh N 1 1 1 IMF + + + + +/- - - DSCOVR Å>2 6.1å+6 8.6E+6 1.8å+6 1.7E+6 1.3E+6 1.8E+6 2.0å+6 GOES Ie>2 343 367 251 176 160 190 173 pfu Ap 4 5 14 7 5 4 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 3 5 14 6 6 4 3 nô IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV RECURRENT ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NO OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. A VERY SMALL FLUX OF SOLAR PROTONS (0.9 pfu) FROM A CLASS X1.5 FLARE WAS OBSERVED IN THE EARTH ENVIRONMENT ON 3-4.09. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUIET ALL DAYS. IN THE NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLE IS EXPECTED A QUITE AND UN- SETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov