------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MAY 2019 HAS MADE Wmay = 6.1 10.1(n) THAT GIVES FOR 118 MONTH (2018, NOVEMBER) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*nov. = 4.0 6.7 - in new system W*Ïct. = 4.1 6.9 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2020; OTHER SC FORECAST: SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) - December 2019; CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard curves, due to K. Denkmayr - October 2018; NOAA - February 2019. The last two, in my opinion, are inadequate, since such short, low SCs were not observed. The observed magnetic structures corresponding SO 25 (~ 20), can be seen http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER (IN NEW SYS- TEM) FOR 2019, MAY ACCORDING DATA OF 67 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 0 6.. 16 11.. 27 16.. 13 21.. 0 26.. 0 31.. 0 2.. 0 7.. 26 12.. 26 17.. 13 22.. 0 27.. 0 3.. 0 8.. 25 13.. 24 18.. 12 23.. 0 28.. 0 4.. 12 9.. 26 14.. 24 19.. 0 24.. 0 29.. 12 5.. 12 10.. 26 15.. 18 20.. 0 25.. 0 30.. 0 Minimum : 0 on 1, 2, 3, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 30, 31 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON MAY 2019, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, NOVEMBER F10.7may = 72.4 F*10.7nov.= 70.3 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON MAY 2019, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, NOVEMBER Ap may = 6.1 Ap*nov. = 7.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 31.05 - 08.06.2019, Forecast on 09 - 16.06.2019, Carrington Rotation 2217, 2218 (06,0.05; 29.5.06.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (-3.8 - -3.4) deg. (S25 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL AND THE SOLAR DISC IS SPOTLESS (86 SPOTLESS DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE- LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 0 (Wn = 0). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LE- VELS. THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK EXPECTED SPOTLESS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI- ONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. TWO FILAMENT EJECTI- ONS AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 01.06 0304 0544 N41E11L015 30 07.06 >1647 ~2100 >0519 S06E16L284 5 CME -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N50L259 N40L274 N12L264 N25L249 ~2,6% 11.05 R1 - SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 03.06/1629 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE SIGN OF THE FIELD IS UNSTABLE AND OFTEN VARIABLE IN VERY SMALL VALUES. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 13.06. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- íáê 31 01 02 03 04 05 íáê Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 069 068 070 070 070 070 èbcg á7.5 á7.8 á7.7 á7.3 A7.3 A7.3 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.6E+8 2.9E+8 1.5E+8 7.4E+7 1.4E+7 5.0E+6 GOES Ie>2 - 5185 5691 3200 pfu Ap 5 3 4 4 7 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 3 4 4 8 4 nô IZMIRAN íáê 06 07 08 09 íáê Wus 000 000 000 000 F10.7 069 069 068 068 èbcg A7.1 A7.1 A7.1 A6.8 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 5.4E+6 6.1E+6 2.6E+6 4.0E+6 GOES Ie>2 205 181 pfu Ap 4 4 18 6 nô Dst -4 -6 -14 nô KIOTO Amsc 3 7 18 6 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGINED 30.05/1535 UT AND OBSERVED 30.05-03.06.2019. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. The GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES ALL DAYS, EXCEPT 08.06 REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. 08.06 THE 9-hour SUBSTORM OF G1 INTEN- SITY ACCORDING THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND 6-hour (G1) ACCORDING OF IZMIRAN DATA WAS OBSERVED (see the Dst-index). THE PROBABLE SOUR- CE OF THIS DISTURBATION - THE EJECTION OF GIGANTIC SOLAR FILAMENT AT 1.06. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSET- TLED. THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AFTER 11.06 IS POSSIBLE BECAU- SE DUE TO WANING CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED STREAM EFFECT. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov