Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 02 - 08.10.2017, Forecast on 09 - 16.10.2017, Carrington Rotation 2195; 2196 (12,73.09; 10.01.10.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (6.7 - 6,2) deg. (S25 - N35 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW (7, 8*.10) LE- VEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATI- VE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W= 012+04/-12 (Wn= 018+08/-18). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK TWO SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. * - 57th spotless day in this year NEXT WEEK LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ON VERY LOW LEVEL WITH VERY LARGE PROBABILITY OF SPOTLESS DAYS. MOST LIKELY WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL AT 05.10 AND VERY LOW AT THE OTHER DAYS. THERE WAS NOT SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES. AC- CORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS > 14 CME HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N10L109 S20L079 S32L101 N02L116 04.10 4 G0 SDO, SOHO... CH + N33L017 N43L312 N27L012 N30L027 11.09 6 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N28L022 N20L017 N15L029 N18L032 10.09 3 G1 SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 3.10/0130 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 12.10. OCTOBER 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 OCTOBER Wus 025 025 027 026 022 011 000 F10.7 086 086 087 085 084 080 077 èbcg á6.9 á5.7 A5.8 A5.9 ÷1.3 A7.5 A8.7 GOES Sp 400 450 430 400 390 220 000 msh N IMF + +/- - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.49+9 3.3å+8 3.7E+8 7.6å+7 5.0å+6 6.8å+6 7.9å+6 GOES Ie>2 28078 16100 8352 5863 3718 273 227 pfu Ap 10 8 7 6 8 4 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 5 4 5 8 4 4 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BE- GIN 28.09/1235 UT AND 28.09 - 06.10 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 10 - 16.10. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE UNSETTLED AND QUIET ALL DAYS, EXCEPT 11 -12.10 WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE FAMILY OF CORONAL HOLES "+" POLARITY ON NORTHEN HEMISPHERE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ~ 20%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov