ADDITION FROM 9/7/2017: THE EMERGENCE OF THE LARGE NEW MAGNETIC FLUX IN (AR12673, S08L119) WHICH HAS BEGUN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY 3.09 HAS LED TO THE PERIOD FLARE ENERGY RELEASE ON SEPTEMBER 4-6, ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL FLARE PERIOD FOR ALL HISTORY OF X-RAY OBSERVATIONS OF THE SUN. FOR 72 h. THIS SUNSPOT GROUP HAS GIVEN 3 LARGE FLARES, ONE OF WHICH 6/1153 UT HAD X-RAY CLASS X9.3/3N IS AT 14th ON INTENSITY OF SOFT X-RAY RADIATION. THE FIRST LARGE FLARE (CLASS 3B/M5.5) HAS HAPPENED 4.09/1959 UT AND THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVE HAS COME TO ENVIRONMENT SPACE 6/2308 UT (SI/2348 UT) HAVING CAUSED THE FIRST MAGNETIC STORM ON THE EARTH. ARRIVAL OF THE SHOCK WAVE FROM FLARE OF X9 IS EXPECTED IN THE FIRST HALF 8.09 THAT, WITH PROBABILITY OF 80%, WILL BRING BY THE STRONG MAGNETIC STORM (G3-4) 8-9.09. FROM FLARE OF M5.5 SOLAR PROTONS WHICH FLUX IN THE MAXIMUM HAS REACHED 210 pfu HAVE COME TO NEAR-EARTH SPACE. THE FLARE OF X9 HAS ADDED PROTONS, HAVING FINISHED FLUX IN THE MAXIMUM TO ~ 400 pfu. THE DEVELOPED CONDITIONS IN NEAR-EARTH SPACE (THE STRONG MAGNETIC STORM + THE SOLAR PROTON EVENT) WILL REPRESENT REAL RADIATION DANGER TO DEVICES AND CREW OF SPACE OBJECTS AND HIGH FLY AIRPLAN. ------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON AUGUST 2017 HAS MADE Wjuly = 19.9 33.1(n) THAT GIVES FOR 97 MONTHS (2017, FEBRUARY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*feb. = 16.0; 26.6 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*jan. = 16.7; 27.9 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2017, AUGUST ACCORDING DATA OF 81 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 13 6.. 13 11.. 13 16.. 32 21.. 66 26.. 49 31.. 74M 2.. 13 7.. 13 12.. 13m 17.. 45 22.. 64 27.. 38 3.. 14 8.. 13 13.. 12 18.. 46 23.. 69 28.. 23 4.. 14 9.. 13 14.. 13 19.. 50 24.. 55 29.. 41 5.. 13 10.. 15 15.. 22 20.. 60 25.. 54 30.. 53 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2017, AUGUST, AND SMOOTHES ON 2017, FEBRUARY F10.7aug. = 77.9 F*10.7 feb.= 78.7 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2017, AUGUST, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, FEBRUARY Ap aug. = 10.1 Ap*feb. = 11.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 28.08 - 03.09.2017, Forecast on 04 - 11.09.2017, Carrington Rotation 2194 (16,48.08.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (7.16 - 7,22) deg. (S23 - N37 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL AFTER 28.08. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W=033+25/-23 (Wn= 053+39/-37). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 5 SUNSPOT GROUP, ONE WAS BIG SIZE (AR12674, N11L102, Sp max.= 770 msh) HAD APPEARANCE FROM E- LIMB 28.08, WHILE QUIET, SO AS GROW BY ACCOUNT SLOWLY REVEALED EVO- LUTIONARY MAGNETIC FLUXES. THE ACTIVE REGION (AR12673, S08L119) WITH 2.09 FAST ASCENT OBSERVED MAGNETIC FLUX WHIH DOUBLED AREA SUNSPOT GROUP AND BECAME MORE COMPLEX MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION THAN TO CREATE CCONDITIONS FOR REALIZATION OF FLARES MIDDLE, AND IN THE FURTHER DE- VELOPMENT, AND LARGE FLARES FROM 4.09. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT A MIDDLE LEVEL. MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 040+30/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A LOW ALL DAYS. TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS WAS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS >12 CME HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 02.09 >1245 >0533 S38E53L088 15 02.09 >1245 >0533 S42W23L164 5 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW (preference), MID DLE AND LARGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N03L220 S01L218 S20L235 S18L237 28.08 3 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N52L169 N40L134 N12L170 N15L194 31.08 3 G0 SDO, SOHO... CH + S05L179 S15L160 S16L170 S05L180 01.09 3 G0 SDO, SOHO... CH - S12L110 S25L070 S30L080 S07L112 08.09 3 SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 16.08/02 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 28.08. AUGUST 28 29 30 31 01 02 07 SEPTEMBER Wus 017 035 042 059 062 071 096 F10.7 082 084 087 092 093 100 120 èbcg ÷2.0 ÷2.2 ÷1.9 B1.8 ÷2.4 ÷2.3 ÷3.3 GOES Sp 100 390 630 950 940 920 150 msh N 2 1 1 1 IMF ~ ~ - ~ ~ - + DSCOVR Å>2 8.1å+6 3.5å+7 2.1E+6 1.8å+6 4.5å+7 2.0å+8 4.0å+8 GOES Ie>2 409 1628 1768 7573 12319 pfu Ap 3 9 4 30 19 18 10 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 8 3 26 15 16 8 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BE- GIN 01.09/1350 UT AND 1 - 3.09 WAS OBSERVED. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 34, dur.= 21 h.) HAS REGISTERED BOUL- DER CENTER DATA 31.08-01.09 AND (G1, Ams = 36, dur.= 15 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA. BY THE DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER IN THE END OF DAYS 1.09 AND 2.09 ONE MORE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 38, dur.= 12 h.) WAS REGISTERED, bUT BY THE DATA OF IZMIRAN IT WAS TWO SMALL SHORT-TERM SUBSTORMS (G0). IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION HAS BEEN UNSET- TLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HOW- EVER, IN CASE THE REALIZATION OF GEOEFFECTIVE SOLAR FLARES IN AR12673, POSSIBLE SPORADICALLY DISTURBANCE IN THE EARTH'S SPACE ENVIRONEMENT, FROM 6.09. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov