Dear friends, colleagues and all those who benefit my reviews, forecasts and judgments, Happy New 2017 Year. This is the last year of the recession phase of solar activity (CA), after which begins the phase of a new minimum, and in 2020 the current 24 CA cycle - the first solar cycle of "lowered" SA epoch - will give way to a new solar cycle № 25, which by the rule Gnevyshev-Ohl undoubtedly will be higher current, average in size. This epoch of "lowered" CA will last 5 solar cycles when unlikely high solar cycles. Thus, until 2070 the Sun will be relatively quiet. With the cyclical patterns of solar activity can be found on the website of the World Data Centre for Solar-Terrestrial Physics in Moscow http://www.wdcb.ru/stp/data/solar.act/csa/Cycles%20of%20Solar%20Activity.en.pdf ------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON DECEMBER 2016 HAS MADE Wnov. = 11.3 19.5(n.) THAT GIVES FOR 89 MONTHS (2016, JUNE) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*june = 25.0; 41.6 - new system W*may = 26.9; 44.9 - new system - On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2016, DECEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 73 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 55 6.. 33 11.. 12 16.. 0m 21.. 30 26.. 0m 31.. 11 2.. 62í 7.. 19 12.. 12 17.. 13 22.. 16 27.. 16 3.. 52 8.. 14 13.. 14 18.. 29 23.. 0m 28.. 12 4.. 38 9.. 20 14.. 23 19.. 15 24.. 0m 29.. 11 5.. 35 10.. 0m 15.. 12 20.. 22 25.. 0m 30.. 11 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2016, DECEMBER, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, JUNE F10.7 dec. = 75.1 F*10.7 june= 81.9 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, DECEMBER, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, JUNE Ap dec. = 8.8 Ap*june= 11.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 26.12 - 01.01 2016, Forecast on 02 - 09.01.2016, Carrington Rotation 2185 (14,05.12.2016) Earth above the ecliptic (-2.3,- 3,0) deg. (S32-N28 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS REMAINED ON A VERY LOW LEVEL AND 29.12 WAS SPOTLESS DAY (32 DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR). 29.12 WAS NEXT (32 IN CURRENT YEAR) IN THE SPOTLESS DAY, AND THE FIRST DAY OF 2017 BECAME NEXT (33 AF- TER THE MAXIMUM) IN THE SPOTLESS DAY OF THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE AND THE FIRST IN NEW YEAR. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W = 5+9/-5 (Wn = 9+5/-9). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 1- 0 SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE VERY LOW LEVEL THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE WERE TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >4 CMEs. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 26.12 >1017 >2203 S10W03L205 14 29.12 >0945 >2219 N19W59L134 5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. óH - S05L131 S15L123 S17L130 S05L138 03.01 2 SDO, SOHO.. óH - N22L108 N15L083 S01L103 N10L118 05.12 9 SDO, SOHO.. óH - S05L103 S08L090 S15L103 S10L105 06.12 9 SDO, SOHO.. óH - S18L103 S45L063 S60L069 S30L125 04.12 9 SDO, SOHO.. LAST 3 CH - the family of South pole polar coronal hole; Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 16.12/0630 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 3.01. DECEMBER 26 27 28 29 30 31 01 JANUARY Wus 013 014 014 000 011 011 000 F10.7 074 074 073 073 074 074 074 èbcg á6.3 á6.4 á6.4 á6.9 á7.1 á6.4 á5.7 GOES Sp 010 030 010 000 010 010 000 msh N 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 6.8å+8 6.2å+8 5.8E+8 7.0E+8 4.7E+8 1.2å+8 1.6å+7 GOES Ie>2 26143 15954 12371 15202 11372 7070 609 pfu Ap 23 11 6 4 3 11 16 nô BOULDER Dst -25 -16 -22 -26 nô KIOTO Amsc 26 13 6 6 3 13 16 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 22/1215 UT AND OBSERVED 22 - 31.12. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 5 - 10.01. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=34, dur.=15 h) BY DATA OF IZMIRAN IS MARKED OUT 26 - 27.12, AND ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOLDERE DATA IT WAS 6 h. SUBSTORM (G0). ON JANUARY, 01 the GEOMAGNETIC CONDITI- ON WAS ACTIVE. IN OTHER DAYS - UNSETTLED. TILL 07.01 THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS EXPECTED ACTIVE, AMPLIFYING TO THE MINOR LEVEL OF MAGNETIC STORMS, ESPECIALLY 4 - 6.01, AS A RE- SULT OF PASSING OF HIGH-SPEED STREAMS OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM FAMILY OF THE POLAR CORONAL HOLE OF THE NEGATIVE POLARITY BY THE EARTH. PROBABILITIES OF THE RECURRENT MINOR MAGNETIC STORMS AT THESE DAYS NOT LESS THAN 60%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru