Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 05 - 11.09 2016, Forecast on 12 - 19.09.2016, Carrington Rotation 2181 (26.89.08.2016) Earth above the ecliptic + 7.25 degrees. SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM LOW LEVEL 5.09 TO THE AVERA- GE IN OTHER DAYS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W = 030+10/-17 (Wn=048+15/-27). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 4-1 SUNSPOT GROUP ONE MIDDLE SIZE, WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK (AR12585, N08L221, Sp=590 msh). NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE LOW AND THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THE ESTI- MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 020+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE WERE THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >5 CMEs, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 05.09 0547 S40E08L230 ? 06.09 0725 1045 S15W75L299 ? 09.09 2136 2238 N09W33L 7 2588 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - S30L190 S35L165 Ps S35L213 13500 10.09 >5 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N35L134 N28L109 N25L144 N30L154 14.09 7 G1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S25L152 S40L165 Ps S35L155 5600 15.09 G0 SDO, SOHO.. Last CH is bay of polar CH; Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 11.09/20 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 16.09. SEPTEMBER 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 SEPTEMBER Wus 022 032 050 049 065 066 063 F10.7 094 0930 093 095 091 093 086 èbcg B1.4 B1.3 B1.4 B1.0 B1.1 B1.5 B1.0 GOES Sp 420 410 470 400 430 450 340 msh N 1 1 1 IMF + + + + + + +/- áóå Å>2 1.6å+9 1.1å+9 1.0å+9 3.4å+8 8.2E+7 2.3E+8 5.1å+8 GOES Ie>2 56842 23395 25202 14152 2575 4304 11499 pfu GOES Ap 19 14 12 14 4 4 3 nT BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 19 15 13 11 5 7 6 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 02/1305 UT AND OBSERVED 05 - 11.09. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 12 - 14.09. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. NEXT WEEK 13-14.09 EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SO- LAR WIND FROM (-) CORONAL HOLE OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SITUATION EARTH CONCERNING THE ECLIPTIC (+7,25 deg.) PLAN INCREACE OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE TO THE MAGNETIC STORM (PRO- BABILITY NOT LESS THAN 40%) IS POSSIBLE. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION UNSETTLED AND QUIET IS EXPECTED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru