Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 22 - 29.09.2013, Forecast on 30.09 - 06.10.2013, Carrington Rotation 2041, 2142 (31,87.08; 28.14.09.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=038+21/-15. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 8 - 3 QUITE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE- RAGE LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPEC- TED W = 040+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS FOR AT A LOW LEVEL ON 24 AND 29.09 AND THE VERY LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. DURING THE CONSIDERED PERIOD 8 DSF WERE OBSER- VED. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 19 CME FROM WHICH ONE WAS THE "PARTIAL HALO III" TYPE AND THREE - "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE. -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 22.09 0329 0531 S39W60L130 29 22.09 >1601 <0538 S49W17L087 10 23.09 >0025 >1312 S12W55L111 23 23.09 0754 0931 S29W50L106 11 24.09 >1616 >0554 N24E70L332 8 25.09 >0037 >1318 N38E41L349 5 28.09 >0944 <2305 S38W42L028 11 28.09 >1553 <0641 S30E45L302 35 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND THE VERY LOW. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - N56L099 N05L090 N15L114 N20L117 22.09 2 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S51L009 S40L039 S35L009 S45L021 29.09 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N08L347 N03L346 S05L346 S08L356 30.09 2 SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- DURING THE PERIOD UNDER REVIEW, THE EARTH HAS CONSISTENTLY HELD THE SEC- TOR BOUNDARIES: 23/18 UT +/-; 25/21 UT-/+; 27/11 UT +/-; 28/14 UT -/+ and 30/0430 UT +/-, AND IS NOW IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY-/+ NHE EARTH MUST PASS 4.09. IX 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 IX Wus 098 065 056 061 063 054 058 039 F10.7 111 108 110 111 110 108 106 103 èbcg B2.4 ÷1.9 B1.9 B2.1 B2.1 B2.1 ÷2.5 ÷3.5 GOES Sp 350 280 240 270 340 280 230 190 m.v.h. N 1 1 1 1 IMF + +/- - -/+ + +/- -/+ + áóå Å>2 1.2å+8 9.1E+7 2.1E+6 6.4å+5 6.7å+5 7.1E+5 7.0E+5 7.5E+5 GOES Ie>2 2906 1893 pfu GOES Ap 5 4 10 4 1 1 2 3 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 8 9 13 8 7 6 6 7 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BEGAN 20.09/1220 UT AND WERE OBSERVED ON SEPTEMBER 22-23. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE ALL PERIOD. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru