Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 16 - 21.09.2013,
                 Forecast on 22 - 30.09.2013,
   Carrington Rotation 2041, 2142 (31,87.08; 28.14.09.2013)
 
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN CHANGED AT THE LOW TO THE AVE-
RAGE LEVELS. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI-
ONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=041+10/-27. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONS-
TANTLY THERE WERE 2 - 7 QUITE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS.

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE-
RAGE LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPEC-
TED W = 040+20/-10.

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS FOR AT A VERY LOW LEVEL ON 16.09 AND THE LOW -
IN OTHER DAYS. DURING THE CONSIDERED PERIOD 8 DSF  WERE OBSERVED.  
BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 28  CME 
FROM WHICH FOUR WERE THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.

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FLARES  to   tm    te   c/p local. Class  E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                  X / opt. J/m-2
 DSF     to      te   c/p local.  l in deg.   Fl   AR           CME
16.09  >0923   <2322   S56W50L199       7
17.09  >0434   <0729   S33W45L091       9
19.09   0231    0301   S12E36L063       8                       CME                   
20.09  >0023   >1331   S22W10L106       11
20.09  >1618   >0516   N27E70L026       15
21.09  >0235   >0410   N29E89L354       18
21.09  >0946   <2307   N13E19L064       11
21.09  >0946   <2307   S01E56L027       5
c/p local. - central part localization 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND 
THE VERY LOW. 

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end      EE    R   Observatories
CH -  N07L189 N05L173 S11L183 N15L191    16.09   4    SDO, SOHO..
CH -  N56L099 N05L090 N15L114 N20L117    22.09   2    SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER 10.09/1130 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 10.09.

SEPTEMBER 16     17     18     19     20     21         SEPTEMBER
Wus      023    080    059    085    085    079    
F10.7    095    099    104    108    109    110  
èbcg    B1.1   ÷1.5   B2.4   B3.0   B2.8   B2.7         GOES
Sp       040    140    240    290    320    390 m.v.h.   
N                5             3                         
IMF       -    -/+      +      +      +      +          áóå
Å>2   4.8å+6 4.6E+6 2.1E+6 1.6å+7 9.9å+7 1.1E+8         GOES
Ie>2                                2939   2810  pfu    GOES 
Ap        5      7      6      11     5      8   nT     áÒ
Dst                                              nT     KIOTO
Amsc      7      10     11     11     9      10  nT     IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary 
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL BEGAN 20.09/1220 UT AND WERE OBSERVED ON SEPTEMBER 20-21.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 23 -24.09.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE ALL PERIOD. 

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET  AND  UNSETTLED. 


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru