Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 14 - 20.01.2013, Forecast on 21 - 28.01.2013, Carrington Rotations 2132, 2133 (29,50.12.2012; 25,84.01.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL TILL JANUARY 19, FURTHER ON THE LOW. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=085+33 /-09. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE PRESENT 6 - 3 SUNSPOTS GROUPS ONE OF THEM IS BIG SIZE TO 16.01. AR11654 (N08L149, CMP 13.3.01.2013; Sp max=1100 m.v.h. FKC B/G) - it came to a visible disk of the Sun 6.12 in development dive; flare activity at the average level only near E-limb. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW AND AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 060+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT AN LOW LEVEL. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 48 CME ONE OF THEM WAS THE "PARTIAL HALO II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 16.01 1923 ~S01W79L201 ~10 C2 11650 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - S15L048 S21L040 S25L046 S18L051 24.01 5 KP, SDO, SOHO.. CH - S27L033 S52L006 S55L046 S48L051 24.01 2 KP, SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 16.01/18 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY - /+ EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 29.01. JANUARY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 JANUARY Wus 128 120 062 074 056 046 048 F10.7 154 140 137 123 115 107 107 èbcg ÷5.0 ÷4.7 B3.9 B2.9 ÷2.7 ÷2.4 B2.2 wt/m-2 GOES Sp 1260 1280 780 650 560 480 410 m.v.h. N 1 1 IMF + + +/- - - - - áóå Å>2 3.3å+6 1.9E+7 2.6E+7 1.7å+7 3.9å+7 3.2å+6 6.8E+6 GOES Ie>2 934 1136 2057 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 8 4 5 12 9 7 9 nô áÒ Dst ëIOTO Amsc 11 7 10 21 16 14 10 nô IZMIRAN >2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. MINOR SOLAR PROTON EVENT (G0) FROM BACKSIDE SOURCES WAS REGISTERED Pr (E>10 MeV): to-16/22; tm-17/1445 - 2 p.f.u.; te - 17/22 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS OBSERVED 17 -18.01. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS, EX- CEPT 17-18.01 WHEN ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA THE 9-hour SUBSTORM IN- TENSITY OF G1 IS NOTED. ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS THESE DAYS THERE WAS UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru