Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 07 - 13.01.2013, Forecast on 14 - 21.01.2013, Carrington Rotations 2132 (29,50.12.2012) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON HIGH LEVEL AT JANUARY 4 - 12. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 085+33/-09. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CON- STANTLY THERE WERE PRESENT 12 - 6 SUNSPOTS GROUPS ONE OF THEM IS BIG SIZE. AR11654 (N08L149, CMP 13.3.01.2013; Sp max=1100 m.v.h. FKC B/G) - it came to a visible disk of the Sun 6.12 in development dive; flare activity at the average level. Large flares are possible only in case of emergence of a new significant magnetic flux- while are improbable. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGH AND AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 060+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT AN AVERAGE LEVEL AT 11 AND 13.01, LOW LEVEL - IN OTHER DAYS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 55 CME ONE OF THEM WAS THE "PARTIAL HALO II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 11.01 0843 0911 >0917 N05E36L187 M1.2/ 9.3E-3 11682 II/1 IV/1 11.01 1451 1507 >1524 N06E39L187 M1.0/1F 1.4E-2 11682 13.01 0045 0050 >0052 n19w27L187 M1.0/ 1.9E-3 11682 13.01 0835 0838 >0840 n10w29L187 M1.7/ 2.0E-3 11682 II/2 IV/2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - N30L263 N29L260 N20l264 N25l280 08.01 10 KP, SDO, SOHO.. CH - N40L228 N30L221 N28l233 N30l251 10.01 10 KP, SDO, SOHO.. Last two CH may be one CH; R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 11.01/20 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY + /- EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 20.01. JANUARY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 JANUARY Wus 196 144 153 145 166 156 126 F10.7 150 156 169 174 172 169 156 èbcg ÷6.6 ÷7.6 ó1.0 B9.5 ÷9.0 ÷7.4 B8.3 wt/m-2 GOES Sp 1390 940 860 1300 1650 1460 1410 m.v.h. N 1 1 2 1 IMF - - - - -/+ + + áóå Å>2 8.2å+5 9.3E+5 8.4E+5 9.5å+5 1.1å+6 6.6å+5 7.8E+5 GOES Ie>2 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 3 3 3 2 2 2 8 nô áÒ Dst ëIOTO Amsc 8 9 7 6 8 7 13 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru